Coal mine fire risk assessment based on AHP-FCE
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摘要:
传统的煤矿火灾评价手段存在主观性强、评价指标不全面等问题，评价结果难以量化和横向比较，影响了火灾评价结果的客观性和准确性。针对上述问题，提出一种基于层次分析法（AHP）−模糊综合评价法（FCE）的煤矿火灾风险评价方法。针对煤矿火灾特点，构建了以“人、机、环、管”4个因素为一级指标，动火作业人员是否持动火证并接受培训、工作面推进度、回风隅角CO浓度、胶带附近浮煤是否及时清理等31个因素为二级指标的火灾指标评价体系；采用AHP确定2级指标的权重，指出“机”和“环”对火灾风险的影响较大；采用FCE计算矿井火灾风险评价向量，给出火灾风险综合评价值四色分级预警结果，并给出了二级指标的评分依据。基于乌东煤矿多次实时监测数据，采用基于AHP−FCE的煤矿火灾风险评价方法对该矿火灾风险进行评价，结果表明：乌东煤矿火灾风险较低，火灾风险为蓝色，与工程实际一致，证明了该评价方法具有较高的准确度。
Abstract:Traditional coal mine fire assessment methods are highly subjective and lack comprehensive evaluation indicators, making the results difficult to quantify and compare across cases, which affects their objectivity and accuracy. To address the above issues, a coal mine fire risk assessment method based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) was proposed. Based on the characteristics of coal mine fires, a fire risk assessment system was constructed, with four first-level indicators—Personnel, Equipment, Environment, and Management—and 31 second-level indicators. These included whether hot work personnel held valid permits and received training, the progress of the working face, CO concentration in the return air corner, and whether floating coal near the belt was promptly cleaned. AHP was used to determine the weights of the second-level indicators, indicating that Equipment and Environment had a greater impact on fire risk. FCE was applied to calculate the fire risk assessment vector of the mine, and a four-color graded early warning result was provided for the comprehensive fire risk assessment value, along with the scoring criteria for the second-level indicators. Based on multiple sets of real-time monitoring data from the Wudong Coal Mine, the AHP-FCE-based fire risk assessment method was used to evaluate the mine's fire risk. The results showed that the fire risk at Wudong Coal Mine was low and classified as blue, consistent with engineering practice, demonstrating that the proposed assessment method had high accuracy.
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图 2 乌东煤矿灾害预警综合管控平台
Figure 2. Comprehensive disaster warning and control platform of Wudong Coal Mine
表 1 一级指标判断矩阵
Table 1 Judgment matrix of first-level indicators
一级指标 A1 A2 A3 A4 A1 1 1/9 1/8 1/2 A2 9 1 3 8 A3 8 1/3 1 7 A4 2 1/8 1/7 1 
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表 2 火灾风险综合评价值四色分级
Table 2 Four-color classification of comprehensive fire risk assessment values
火灾风险等级 蓝色 黄色 橙色 红色 评价值y ≥0.95 0.9～0.95 085～0.9 ＜0.8
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表 3 火灾风险二级指标评分依据
Table 3 Scoring criteria for second-level indicators of fire risk
二级指标 四色分级阈值描述 A101 持证上岗：蓝色；未持证上岗：红色 A102 动火作业人员每年培训时间大于20学时：蓝色；
无培训或低于20学时：红色A103 所有工人单次入井时间小于8 h：蓝色；1名工人单次入井时间8～10 h：黄色；1名工人单次入井时间10～12 h：橙色；1名工人单次入井时间12 h以上：红色 A201 每月平均推进速度≥1倍正常推进速度：蓝色；0.75～1倍推进速度：黄色；0.5～0.75倍推进速度：橙色；低于0.5倍推进速度：红色 A202 满足注氮需求量，即1倍：蓝色；0.8～1倍：黄色；
0.6～0.8倍：橙色；小于0.6倍：红色A203 胶带托辊温度大于150 ℃：红色；90～150℃：橙色；
60～90℃：黄色；小于60℃：蓝色A204 O2体积分数相差0～0.02：蓝色；0.02～0.04：黄色；
0.04～0.06：橙色；大于0.06：红色A205 故障率0.02以上：红色；
0.015～0.02：橙色；
0.015～0.01：黄色；
0.01以下：蓝色A206 A207 A208 A209 报警时间1 min以内：蓝色；
1～5 min：黄色；
5～10 min：橙色；
大于10 min：红色A210 A211 A212 A213 A301 CO体积分数低于8×106：蓝色；8×106～16×106：黄色；16×106～24×106：橙色；24×106以上：红色 A302 漏风率≤0.1：蓝色；0.1～0.15：黄色；0.15～0.2：橙色；
大于0.2：红色A303 不同煤矿有所差别，该处数值作为参考： R2为0～0.45：低温氧化阶段，预警值，蓝色； R2为0.45～4：高温氧化阶段，临界值，黄色； R2为4～9：开始燃烧阶段，报警值，橙色； R2大于9：着火，红色 A304 采空区最高温度≤40 ℃：蓝色；40～60 ℃：黄色；
60～80℃：橙色；≥80 ℃：红色A305 未见乙烯：蓝色；出现乙烯：红色 A306 工作面回风流监测最高温度低于26 ℃：蓝色；26～30 ℃：黄色；30～34 ℃：橙色；高于34 ℃：红色 A307 有火成岩侵入：红色；无火成岩侵入；蓝色 A308 Ⅰ类易自燃及Ⅱ类自燃：红色；Ⅲ类不易自燃：蓝色 A401 每班清理胶带附近浮煤：蓝色；
某班存在胶带附近浮煤未清理现象：红色A402 防灭火技术人员每年考核且与绩效挂钩：蓝色；
防灭火技术人员无考核或考核未与绩效挂钩：红色A403 指标满足全部要求：蓝色；不符合1项：黄色；
不符合2项：橙色；不符合3项以上：红色A404 针对瓦斯抽采编制防火预案：蓝色；未编制防火预案：红色 A405 编制防灭火专项设计且有2种以上方案：蓝色；
未编制防灭火专项设计或仅有1套方案：红色A406 治理费用低于5元/t：红色；5～10元/t：
橙色；10～15元/t：黄色；大于15元/t：蓝色A407 动火作业实行审批制度：蓝色；无审批制度：红色
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表 4 火灾风险等级评价
Table 4 Fire risk level assessment
二级指标 蓝 黄 橙 红 二级指标 蓝 黄 橙 红 A101 0.6 0.15 0.25 0 A301 0.9 0.1 0 0 A102 0.7 0.05 0.25 0 A302 0.8 0.15 0.05 0 A103 0.6 0.25 0.15 0 A303 0.7 0.1 0.2 0 A201 1 0 0 0 A304 0.65 0.1 0.25 0 A202 0.6 0.2 0.15 0.05 A305 0.7 0.2 0.1 0 A203 0.6 0.2 0.05 0.15 A306 0.65 0.2 0.15 0 A204 0.7 0.15 0.15 0 A307 0.85 0.05 0.1 0 A205 0.85 0.15 0 0 A308 0.65 0.1 0.25 0 A206 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 A401 0.65 0.2 0.15 0 A207 0.65 0.2 0.15 0 A402 1 0 0 0 A208 0.6 0.25 0.15 0 A403 0.65 0.15 0.2 0 A209 0.75 0.2 0.05 0 A404 0.7 0.3 0 0 A210 0.6 0.25 0.15 0 A405 0.65 0.05 0.3 0 A211 0.95 0 0.05 0 A406 0.7 0.2 0.1 0 A212 0.6 0.15 0.25 0 A407 0.6 0.2 0.2 0 A213 0.75 0.2 0.05 0 — — — — —
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