基于多因素的露天矿车辆运行速度特征与预测研究

Research on Characteristics and Prediction of Vehicle Speed in Open-Pit Mines based on Multiple Factors

  • 摘要: 为解决露天煤矿车辆运行速度规律不清、安全行驶速度限制单一,生产效率低、预测模型因素不全、数据集不够等问题,提出考虑多因素及时间特性的多源数据融合分析车辆运行特征和速度预测模型。首先,通过采集露天矿2年的车辆速度、气象数据、无人机影像及生产计划图纸数据,对数据进行清洗、坐标转换、数据三维融合呈现,采用聚类分析、相关性分析等数学方法,得到车辆在不同气象时间道路形态下的运行速度特征;其次,融合道路位置、运行时段、气象等因素,推导得出不同时刻下无降水、小雨、中雨、大雨、降雪条件下的平路、上坡、转弯、下坡场景下的多因素露天矿车辆速度预测模型,分别将车辆速度的平均相对误差、平均绝对误差、均方根误差作为速度预测模型的评价指标;最后,根据道路摩擦系数、驾驶员反应时间、车辆制动距离等参数构建车辆安全行驶速度模型,得出车辆不同时空场景下的车辆安全行驶速度。实验结果表明:①以晴天上午9点车辆速度为基准值,车速在上午7点至11点处于在高位运行状态下,车辆在不同天气条件下车速差别较大,变化幅度在(-46%~+11%)之间,同一天不同时刻的速度增幅在(-20%-+5%)之间,车辆运输在不同时间段效能不同;②车辆运行速度与降水量成负相关,与道路结构具有强相关,与时间分布具有强相关;③通过对构建模型分析可知,模型平均相对误差在2%以内,平均绝对误差控制在0.4km/h以内,均方根误差小于2km/h,预测效果较好;④以安全行驶速度与预测速度最小值作为安全行驶阈值,并得到不同天气情况下不同道路形态不同时刻的安全行驶速度阈值。研究成果可提高露天矿采场内不同路段的速度预测精度,为露天矿车辆速度运行规律与生产组织关联、实时调度提供支撑,对保证露天矿生产时空平稳接续具有重要的意义。

     

    Abstract: To solve the problems of unclear vehicle operation speed pattern, single safety driving speed limit, low production efficiency, incomplete prediction model and insufficient data set, a multi-source data fusion analysis model considering multiple factors and time characteristics is proposed to analyze vehicle operation characteristics and speed prediction. Firstly, the vehicle speed meteorological data, UAV images and production plan drawings data are collected in an open-pit mine for two years, and the data are cleaned, coordinate transformed, and the data are-dimensional integrated. The mathematical methods such as cluster analysis and correlation analysis are used to obtain the operation speed characteristics of the vehicle under different meteorological road morphology. Secondly, the road, operation period, meteorological and other factors are integrated to deduce the multi-factor open-pit mine vehicle speed prediction model under the condition of no precipitation, light rain, moderate, heavy rain and snow at different moments, and the average relative error, average absolute error and root mean square error of vehicle speed are used as the evaluation indexes of the speed prediction. Finally, the vehicle safety driving speed model is constructed according to the road friction coefficient, the driver’s reaction time, the vehicle braking distance and other parameters, and the safety driving speed under different space-time scenes is obtained. The experimental results show that: ① the vehicle speed is in a high operation state from 7 am to 1 am, the vehicle speed is quite different under different conditions, the change range is between (-46% ~ 11%), the speed increase range at different times on same day is between (-20% ~ 5%), and the vehicle transportation efficiency will present different efficiency at different times; ② the vehicle operation speed is negatively correlated the precipitation amount, and it is strongly correlated with the road structure and time distribution; ③ through the analysis of the constructed model, it can be seen that the average relative error the model is within 2%, the average absolute error is controlled within 0.4 km/H, and the root mean square error is less than 2 km/, the prediction result is better; ④ taking the safety driving speed and the minimum value of the predicted speed as the safety driving threshold, and obtaining the safety driving speed threshold of road morphology at different moments under different weather conditions. The research results can improve the accuracy of speed prediction in different sections of the open-pit mine, and provide support for the correlation the operation law of vehicle speed and production organization, and real-time dispatching. It is of great significance to the production space-time steady connection of the open-pit.

     

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