基于微震分形维数的冲击地压风险判识模型及应用

A Microseismic Fractal Dimensions-Based Model and its Application for Coal Burst Hazards Assessment

  • 摘要: 为提升冲击地压风险评估的科学性与可靠性,构建了一种基于分形维数的综合评估方法,并基于小纪汗煤矿微震监测数据开展了工程验证与示范应用。本方法可定量识别岩石破裂过程中与冲击地压风险相关的声发射(AE)及微震(MS)前兆信息,为冲击地压的早期预警提供量化依据。以小纪汗煤矿15个月预处理后的历史微震数据为基础,完成模型参数的标定工作,进而将模型用于生产期间冲击地压风险的动态评估。构建的分形维数指标体系包括6个信息维数和3个容量维数,形成多维度的表征体系。评估过程中采用基于高斯隶属度函数的模糊综合评价(FCE)模型,将评估结果转化为对应"无风险、弱风险、中风险、强风险"四个等级的概率分布,最终输出确定性的综合风险等级判定结果。研究结果表明,该分形维数综合评估方法能够有效捕捉冲击地压发生的前兆特征,评估结果符合工程实际,可作为矿山冲击灾害防控的有效技术手段。

     

    Abstract: To enhance the scientific rigor and reliability of risk assessment, this study developed a comprehensive evaluation methodology based on fractal dimensions, validated and demonstrated using long-term microseismic monitoring data from the Xiaojihan Coal Mine. The proposed methodology enables the quantitative identification of precursory signatures in acoustic emission (AE) and microseismic (MS) activities linked to impending rock failures. Model parameters were calibrated using 15 months of preprocessed historical MS data from the mine, and the method was subsequently applied for dynamic risk assessment during ongoing mining operations. The established fractal dimension system comprises six information dimensions and three capacity dimensions, forming a multi-attribute characterization framework. A Gaussian membership-based Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) model translates the analytical results into probability distributions across four risk levels: "none, weak, moderate, and strong," ultimately yielding a deterministic comprehensive risk rating. Results indicate that this fractal dimension-based methodology effectively captures precursor characteristics of rockbursts. The assessment outcomes align well with field observations, demonstrating its potential as a reliable technical tool for seismic hazard prevention and control in mines.

     

/

返回文章
返回