基于ISSA−LSTM的瓦斯浓度预测研究

Gas concentration prediction based on ISSA-LSTM

  • 摘要: 煤矿瓦斯浓度序列具有非线性、非平稳及多尺度波动特征,现有预测模型的协同处理有限,预测精度不足。针对该问题,提出一种融合STL与自适应噪声完全集合经验模态分解(CEEMDAN)技术的改进麻雀搜索算法(ISSA)−长短期记忆(LSTM)瓦斯浓度预测模型。采用STL方法提取瓦斯浓度序列中的趋势项、周期项和不规则项,之后采用CEEMDAN对强非线性的不规则项进行分解,以消除原始瓦斯浓度数据的非平稳干扰;采用引入对立学习和Lévy飞行机制的ISSA对LSTM关键超参数寻优,构建ISSA−LSTM模型;基于ISSA−LSTM模型分别预测STL和CEEMDAN分解后的各分量,并对预测值进行重构,得到瓦斯浓度预测结果。采用煤矿实测瓦斯数据开展实验,结果表明:ISSA−LSTM模型在收敛迭代次数、收敛成功率和预测误差方面优于基于遗传算法、粒子群优化算法等优化的LSTM模型;融合STL与CEEMDAN的ISSA−LSTM在不同时段3折交叉验证的决定系数R2均大于0.998、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)小于0.004,在1,7 h超前预测任务中MAPE分别为0.018 7和0.026 9,跨数据集验证中R2为0.955 9、MAPE为0.012 17,验证了该模型具有很好的泛化性能。

     

    Abstract: Coal mine gas concentration series exhibit nonlinear, nonstationary, and multiscale fluctuation characteristics. Existing prediction models have limited capacity to jointly handle these characteristics, resulting in insufficient prediction accuracy. To address this problem, a gas concentration prediction model based on an Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm (ISSA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), integrating STL and Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), was proposed. STL was used to extract the trend, seasonal, and irregular components of the gas concentration series. CEEMDAN was then employed to decompose the strongly nonlinear irregular component, thereby eliminating nonstationary interference from the original gas concentration data. ISSA incorporating opposition-based learning and a Lévy flight mechanism was used to optimize the key hyperparameters of LSTM, and an ISSA-LSTM model was constructed. The ISSA-LSTM model was used to predict the components decomposed by STL and CEEMDAN, and the predicted values were reconstructed to obtain the gas concentration prediction results. Experiments were conducted using gas concentration data measured in a coal mine. The results showed that the ISSA-LSTM model outperformed LSTM models optimized using genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimization, and other algorithms in terms of the number of convergence iterations, convergence success rate, and prediction error. In three-fold cross-validation across different time periods, the ISSA-LSTM model integrating STL and CEEMDAN achieved coefficients of determination (R2) greater than 0.998 and Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPEs) below 0.004. For the 1- and 7-h-ahead prediction tasks, the MAPEs were 0.018 7 and 0.026 9, respectively. In cross-dataset validation, the R2 was 0.955 9 and the MAPE was 0.012 17, demonstrating the strong generalization performance of the proposed model.

     

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