基于深度特征融合与时序依赖建模的瓦斯浓度动态预测

Dynamic prediction of gas concentration based on deep feature fusion and temporal dependency modeling

  • 摘要: 瓦斯浓度序列具有非平稳性、多尺度波动特征和长程时序依赖,演化过程受多源环境因素耦合影响,现有瓦斯浓度预测模型多侧重于单一时间序列建模或浅层特征组合,难以兼顾时序依赖表征与跨变量关联建模。针对上述问题,提出了一种基于深度特征融合与时序依赖建模的瓦斯浓度动态预测模型。首先,引入变分模态分解(VMD),将原始瓦斯浓度序列自适应分解为若干本征模态函数(IMF)和残差分量;其次,结合VMD分解结果与多源环境参数构建变量图节点,基于不同环境参数与瓦斯浓度序列之间的相关性建立邻接矩阵,为跨变量关联建模提供结构先验;然后,采用时序卷积网络(TCN)提取由各IMF分量、残差项及多源环境参数构成的多变量序列的短期波动特征和长期依赖信息;最后,通过采用邻接掩码约束和缩放点积注意力的多头图注意力机制(MGA),实现变量间动态耦合关系建模与多源异构特征融合。实验结果表明,与主流预测模型相比,所提模型的均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和决定系数(R2)均取得最优结果,分别为0.028 6,0.021 5和0.954,且在整体精度、局部波动刻画及复杂场景适应性方面均优于对比模型。

     

    Abstract: Gas concentration series exhibit non-stationarity, multi-scale fluctuation characteristics, and long-range temporal dependencies, and their evolution is influenced by the coupling of multiple environmental factors. Existing gas concentration prediction models mainly focus on single time series modeling or shallow feature combinations, making it difficult to simultaneously capture temporal dependency representation and cross-variable association modeling. To address this issue, a dynamic prediction model of gas concentration based on deep feature fusion and temporal dependency modeling was proposed. First, Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) was introduced to adaptively decompose the original gas concentration series into several Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and a residual component. Then, graph nodes for variables were constructed by combining the VMD decomposition results with multi-source environmental parameters, and an adjacency matrix was established based on the correlations between different environmental parameters and the gas concentration series, providing structural priors for cross-variable association modeling. Next, a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) was used to extract short-term fluctuation features and long-term dependency information from multivariate sequences composed of IMFs, residual components, and multi-source environmental parameters. Finally, a Multi-Head Graph Attention (MGA) with adjacency mask constraints and scaled dot-product attention was employed to model dynamic coupling relationships among variables and to achieve heterogeneous feature fusion from multiple sources. The experimental results showed that, compared with mainstream prediction models, the proposed model achieved the best performance in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Coefficient of Determination (R²), with values of 0.028 6, 0.021 5, and 0.954, respectively, and outperformed the comparison models in overall accuracy, local fluctuation characterization, and adaptability to complex scenarios.

     

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