基于灰色关联度法的边坡稳定性影响规律与敏感性研究

Influence patterns and sensitivity of slope stability based on grey relational analysis

  • 摘要: 复杂地质条件下边坡稳定性主控因素的识别及影响规律的探究目前没有形成完善的体系,多因素交互效应难以有效剥离,基于有限模拟样本的敏感性排序存在不确定性,部分研究缺乏可复用的系统化流程,导致不同工程之间的分析结果可比性不足。针对该问题,以某露天矿含断层、软弱夹层的典型边坡为研究对象,将正交试验设计的高效析因能力与灰色关联度法处理小样本、非线性问题的优势相结合,构建了从试验设计、数值模拟到结果分析的标准化敏感性分析框架,分析了软弱夹层倾角、黏聚力、内摩擦角、厚度、埋深及断层倾角对边坡稳定性的影响规律与敏感性。分析结果表明:断层倾角、软弱夹层埋深与软弱夹层内摩擦角是控制该边坡稳定性的核心因素;正交试验与灰色关联度法得出高度一致的敏感性顺序:软弱夹层内摩擦角>软弱夹层埋深>断层倾角>软弱夹层黏聚力>软弱夹层倾角>软弱夹层厚度;稳定性系数随软弱夹层参数改变呈一般线性规律,随断层倾角改变呈独特的非线性变化,该规律可由修正Gompertz模型表征;顺倾或逆倾断层逐渐趋近直立断层时,边坡稳定性随之增强。

     

    Abstract: The identification of dominant factors controlling slope stability and the investigation of their influence patterns under complex geological conditions have not yet formed a comprehensive system, and the interaction effects of multiple factors are difficult to decouple effectively. The sensitivity ranking based on limited simulation samples is uncertain, and some studies lack a reusable systematic workflow, resulting in insufficient comparability of analysis results among different engineering cases. To address this issue, a typical slope in an open-pit mine containing faults and weak interlayers was selected as the research object. The efficient factorial capability of orthogonal experimental design was combined with the advantages of grey relational analysis in handling small-sample and nonlinear problems, and a standardized sensitivity analysis framework from experimental design to numerical simulation and results analysis was constructed. The influence patterns and sensitivity of slope stability to the dip angle, cohesion, internal friction angle, thickness, and burial depth of the weak interlayer, as well as the fault dip angle, were analyzed. The results showed that the fault dip angle, burial depth of the weak layer, and internal friction angle of the weak layer were key factors controlling slope stability. The sensitivity ranking obtained by orthogonal experiments and grey relational analysis was highly consistent, namely, internal friction angle of the weak layer > burial depth of the weak layer > fault dip angle > cohesion of the weak layer > dip angle of the weak layer > thickness of the weak layer. The stability coefficient showed a generally linear variation with the parameters of the weak interlayer, and exhibited a distinctive nonlinear variation with the fault dip angle, which was described by a modified Gompertz model. As the dip angle of either a dip-slope fault or a reverse-dip fault gradually approached that of a vertical fault, the slope stability correspondingly increased.

     

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