融合N−K模型和BN模型的露天矿滑坡风险耦合分析

Coupled analysis of landslide risk in open-pit mines integrating N-K model and BN model

  • 摘要: 现有露天矿滑坡事故耦合致因分析研究缺乏对露天矿滑坡风险因素耦合关系的量化表征与推演,如风险因素耦合强度、风险因素敏感度等要素,对露天矿滑坡风险耦合分析具有一定局限性。针对该问题,提出了一种融合N−K模型和贝叶斯网络(BN)模型的露天矿滑坡风险耦合分析方法。首先,通过分析51起官方报道的露天矿滑坡事故案例,对事故直接原因进行分类汇总,定义了人的因素、环境因素、采矿设备因素、管理因素及风险耦合类型。然后,构建N−K模型探讨风险因素之间的耦合关系及耦合机理。最后,将N−K模型的计算结果整合到BN模型中,进行正向、逆向推理分析与风险因素敏感性研究。结果表明:导致露天矿滑坡事故发生概率最高的风险耦合类型是“人−环−管”耦合,发生概率为37.32%;“人−环−机−管”风险耦合值最高,约为0.26,且发生概率为29.60%。根据研究结果,提出应该以环境风险因素和管理风险因素为切入点,对露天矿滑坡风险进行系统性全局管控,预防风险因素之间的共同作用与链式效应,尽可能切断风险因素之间的耦合关系,从而降低露天矿滑坡事故的发生率。

     

    Abstract: Existing coupled-causation analyses of landslide accidents in open-pit mines lack quantitative characterization and inference of the coupling relationships among risk factors, such as coupling strength and sensitivity of risk factors, which have certain limitations for coupled risk analysis of landslides in open-pit mines. To address this issue, a coupled analysis method for landslide risk in open-pit mines that integrated the N-K model and the Bayesian Network (BN) model was proposed. First, by analyzing 51 officially reported landslide accident cases in open-pit mines, the direct causes of the accidents were classified and summarized, and human factors, environmental factors, mining equipment factors, management factors, and types of risk coupling were defined. Then, the N-K model was constructed to explore the coupling relationships and coupling mechanisms among risk factors. Finally, the calculation results of the N-K model were integrated into the BN model to conduct forward and backward inference and to analyze the sensitivity of risk factors. The results showed that the risk coupling type with the highest probability of causing landslide accidents in open-pit mines was the "human-environment-management" coupling, with a probability of 37.32%; the "human-environment-equipment-management" coupling had the highest risk coupling value, approximately 0.26, with an occurrence rate of 29.60%. Based on the findings, the study suggests that environmental risk factors and management risk factors should be taken as the entry points for systematic and overall control of landslide risks in open-pit mines, so as to prevent the joint effects and chain effects among risk factors and to cut off the coupling relationships among them as much as possible, thereby reducing the occurrence rate of landslide accidents in open-pit mines.

     

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