基于WMA−LightGBM的露天矿边坡稳定性预测

Slope stability prediction for open-pit mines based on WMA-LightGBM

  • 摘要: 对于露天矿边坡稳定性预测,传统物理力学分析或数值模拟方法存在建模过程复杂、计算成本高的问题,而现有机器学习模型对不同数据类型的敏感度不同且难以找到全局最优解。针对上述问题,提出了一种融合鲸鱼迁徙优化算法(WMA)与轻量级梯度提升机(LightGBM)的边坡稳定性预测模型(WMA−LightGBM模型)。以边坡高度、边坡角、容重、黏聚力、内摩擦角和孔隙压力比6项边坡主控影响特征作为模型输入,利用WMA的双阶段协同优化与自适应迁徙策略对LightGBM超参数进行自适应全局寻优,实现边坡稳定性状态的精准预测。实验结果表明,WMA−LightGBM模型具备良好的泛化能力,实现了对失稳边坡的零漏判,且将稳定边坡误判控制在较低水平,预测准确率为96.3%、精确率为100%、召回率为94%、F1分数为0.9680、曲线下面积为0.98,在工程安全性和预测精度上均显著优于对比模型;基于SHAP算法的特征依赖性分析揭示了特征对预测结果的影响规律,验证了模型预测逻辑的合理性,为该模型在边坡稳定性预测场景中的可靠工程应用提供了关键支撑。

     

    Abstract: For slope stability prediction in open-pit mines, traditional physico-mechanical analysis or numerical simulation methods suffer from complex modeling processes and high computational costs, while existing machine learning models show varying sensitivity to different data types and struggle to obtain globally optimal solutions. To address these issues, a slope stability prediction model integrating the Whale Migration Algorithm (WMA) and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), namely the WMA-LightGBM model, was proposed. Six primary controlling factors of slope stability—slope height, slope angle, unit weight, cohesion, internal friction angle, and pore pressure ratio—were selected as model inputs. The dual-stage collaborative optimization and adaptive migration strategy of WMA were employed to perform adaptive global optimization of LightGBM hyperparameters, enabling accurate prediction of slope stability states. Experimental results showed that the WMA-LightGBM model exhibited strong generalization ability, achieved zero missed detections of unstable slopes, and maintained a low misclassification rate for stable slopes. The model attained an accuracy of 96.3%, precision of 100%, recall of 94%, F1-score of 0.968, and an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.98, significantly outperforming comparative models in both engineering safety and predictive accuracy. Furthermore, feature dependency analysis based on the SHAP algorithm revealed the influence patterns of input features on prediction outcomes, validating the rationality of the model's predictive logic and providing key support for its reliable engineering application in slope stability prediction scenarios.

     

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