Analysis of influencing factors of coal mine water inrush accidents based on DEMATEL-ISM-BN
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摘要: 透水事故是继瓦斯事故和顶板事故之后的第三大煤矿事故，分析探究透水事故致因及各因素间的内在关联，可有效实现透水事故管控和遏制。现有煤矿透水事故研究大多针对某一地区或某一方面，缺少对影响因素之间复杂因果关系及各因素对事故影响程度的深入研究。针对该问题，采用决策试验和评价试验法(DEMATEL)和解释结构模型法(ISM)对煤矿透水事故影响因素进行分析，构建多级递阶结构模型，并将其映射到贝叶斯网络 (BN)模型中，得到DEMATEL−ISM−BN模型。基于数据驱动思想，对典型事故案例进行研究，确定了诱发煤矿透水事故的18个影响因素；结合专家打分结果进行DEMATEL分析，计算各因素的影响度、被影响度、原因度和中心度；根据DEMATEL分析结果计算得出ISM的可达矩阵，构建多级递阶结构模型；结合煤矿透水事故真实案例样本数据构建BN模型，利用BN模型的故障诊断功能进行致因链分析。DEMATEL分析结果表明，水害认识不足、水文地质探测不到位是煤矿透水事故发生的主要影响因素，其次是安全管理混乱和技术手段薄弱；ISM分析结果表明，三违行为和水源威胁在透水事件多级递阶结构模型中处于顶层，是诱发透水事故的直接因素；BN分析结果表明，水文地质探测不到位→水源威胁→透水事故是最可能的致因链。要有效遏制煤矿透水事故的发生，应提高员工水害意识，严格进行水文地质探测工作，从根本上杜绝生产人员的违法违规行为。Abstract: The water inrush accident is the third largest coal mine accident after the gas accident and the roof accident. The analysis and exploration of the causes of the water inrush accident and the intrinsic relationship between the various factors can effectively realize the control and containment of the water inrush accident. The existing coal mine water inrush accident research mostly aims at a certain area or a certain aspect. There is a lack of in-depth research on the complex causal relationship among the influence factors and the influence degree of each factor on the accident. In order to solve this problem, decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and interpretative structural modeling method (ISM) are used to analyze the influencing factors of coal mine water inrush accidents. The multi-level hierarchical structure model is constructed, which is mapped into the Bayesian network (BN) model. The DEMATEL-ISM-BN model is obtained. Based on the data-driven theory, typical accident cases are studied. There are 18 influencing factors inducing coal mine water inrush accidents determined. Based on expert scoring results, DEMATEL analysis is carried out. The influence degree, influenced degree, cause degree and centrality of each factor are calculated. The reachability matrix of ISM is calculated according to the DEMATEL analysis results. The multi-level hierarchical structure model is constructed. The BN model is constructed based on the real case data of coal mine water inrush accidents. The causal chain analysis is carried out by using the fault diagnosis function of the BN model. The results of the DEMATEL analysis show that the main factors affecting the occurrence of coal mine water inrush accidents are the lack of understanding of water disasters and inadequate hydrogeological detection. The other factors include confusion of safety management and weak technical means. ISM analysis results show that the "three violations" behavior and water source threat are at the top of the multi-level hierarchical structure model of water inrush accidents. These are the direct factors inducing water inrush accidents. The BN analysis results show that the most likely cause chain is inadequate hydrogeological detection → water source threat → water inrush accidents. To effectively curb the occurrence of coal mine water inrush accidents, it is suggested to improve the staff awareness of water disasters, strictly carry out hydrogeological exploration, and fundamentally eliminate the illegal behavior of production personnel.
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图 1 煤矿透水事故影响因素框架
Figure 1. Framework of influence factors of coal mine water inrush accidents
图 2 煤矿透水事故影响因素多级递阶结构模型
Figure 2. Multi-level hierarchical structure model of influence factors of coal mine water inrush accidents
图 3 煤矿透水事故影响因素BN模型
Figure 3. Bayesian network model of influence factors of coal mine water inrush accidents
图 4 煤矿透水事故影响因素BN节点后验概率分布
Figure 4. Posteriori probability distribution of BN nodes of influence factors of coal mine water inrush accidents
表 1 煤矿透水事故关键词及频次统计
Table 1. Keywords and frequency statistics of water inrush accidents in coal mines
关键词 频次 关键词 频次 关键词 频次 不到位 51 技术手段 16 越界开采 9 安全 42 巷道 14 教育 8 探放水 33 培训 14 安全意识 8 防治水 27 透水征兆 13 煤柱断层 7 积水 23 人员配备 13 图纸 6 管理不到位 22 管理混乱 10 非法 4 监管不落实 21 采空区 10 违章 4 违法布置
掘进工作面18 设备 9 地质 4 
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表 2 煤矿透水事故综合影响矩阵
Table 2. Comprehensive influence matrix of coal mine water inrush accidents
Si Sj S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 S10 S11 S12 S13 S14 S15 S16 S17 S18 S1 0.05 0.12 0.04 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.09 0.09 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.08 0.02 0.08 0.07 S2 0.15 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.05 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.07 0.03 0.04 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.09 0.09 S3 0.18 0.19 0.08 0.13 0.14 0.08 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.14 0.09 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.10 0.06 0.11 0.10 S4 0.15 0.17 0.16 0.08 0.21 0.13 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.20 0.15 0.06 0.12 0.08 0.11 0.07 0.12 0.11 S5 0.20 0.21 0.18 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.15 0.21 0.08 0.12 0.10 0.10 0.07 0.13 0.11 S6 0.13 0.19 0.13 0.12 0.18 0.10 0.20 0.21 0.18 0.21 0.20 0.13 0.18 0.08 0.11 0.07 0.13 0.08 S7 0.05 0.08 0.07 0.04 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.16 0.08 0.10 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.03 S8 0.05 0.08 0.06 0.03 0.13 0.09 0.11 0.06 0.10 0.10 0.15 0.06 0.07 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.02 S9 0.06 0.09 0.07 0.04 0.13 0.10 0.12 0.11 0.07 0.11 0.16 0.06 0.07 0.03 0.06 0.04 0.05 0.03 S10 0.15 0.19 0.10 0.08 0.14 0.13 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.11 0.19 0.12 0.16 0.05 0.10 0.06 0.10 0.05 S11 0.08 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.12 0.10 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.10 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.09 0.03 S12 0.10 0.12 0.07 0.06 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.12 0.12 0.16 0.20 0.06 0.16 0.06 0.08 0.03 0.15 0.05 S13 0.08 0.09 0.05 0.04 0.14 0.12 0.16 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.17 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.02 0.05 0.03 S14 0.19 0.21 0.19 0.14 0.22 0.13 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.19 0.15 0.06 0.08 0.07 0.15 0.12 0.14 0.14 S15 0.20 0.22 0.18 0.18 0.22 0.17 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.21 0.18 0.09 0.12 0.16 0.09 0.10 0.17 0.15 S16 0.21 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.22 0.15 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.21 0.19 0.09 0.12 0.16 0.14 0.06 0.19 0.17 S17 0.15 0.17 0.16 0.12 0.21 0.13 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.20 0.15 0.06 0.12 0.08 0.11 0.07 0.08 0.11 S18 0.19 0.20 0.17 0.12 0.13 0.07 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.15 0.09 0.04 0.06 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.12 0.07
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表 3 煤矿透水事故影响因素的DEMATEL分析结果
Table 3. DEMEATEL analysis results of influence factors of coal mine water inrush accidents
影响因素 影响度 被影响度 中心度 中心度排序 原因度 因素属性 三违行为S1 1.044 0 2.365 4 3.409 5 16 −1.321 4 结果因素 生理心理因素S2 1.421 7 2.705 7 4.127 4 8 −1.284 1 结果因素 安全风险意识差S3 1.891 5 2.050 8 3.942 3 12 −0.159 4 结果因素 无证上岗S4 2.440 7 1.728 2 4.168 9 7 0.712 5 原因因素 水害认识不足S5 2.621 0 2.778 4 5.399 4 1 −0.157 4 结果因素 技术手段薄弱S6 2.622 4 1.943 0 4.565 4 4 0.679 5 原因因素 巷道设计不合理S7 1.346 2 2.638 8 3.985 0 11 −1.292 5 结果因素 探防排水设备不合理S8 1.228 9 2.476 6 3.705 4 14 −1.247 7 结果因素 探放水系统不合理S9 1.400 0 2.414 0 3.813 9 13 −1.014 0 结果因素 水文地质探测不到位S10 2.292 2 2.624 5 4.916 7 2 −0.332 3 结果因素 水源威胁S11 1.571 3 2.685 3 4.256 5 6 −1.114 0 结果因素 地质条件复杂S12 2.016 2 1.226 2 3.242 4 18 0.789 9 原因因素 围岩情况复杂S13 1.499 6 1.779 6 3.279 2 17 −0.279 9 结果因素 教育培训不到位S14 2.674 4 1.341 1 4.015 5 10 1.333 3 原因因素 安全管理混乱S15 2.989 8 1.587 8 4.577 6 3 1.402 0 原因因素 监督体系不健全S16 3.052 4 1.014 2 4.066 6 9 2.038 2 原因因素 人员配备不足S17 2.440 7 1.876 1 4.316 8 5 0.564 6 原因因素 违法组织开采S18 2.122 7 1.439 9 3.562 6 15 0.682 8 原因因素
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