Staged multi-index comprehensive evaluation method for fire risk of coal working face
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摘要: 针对矿井火灾风险评价方法存在评价维度单一、评价指标不全面、评价结果不可靠等问题，基于层次分析法，提出了一种采煤工作面火灾风险阶段性多指标综合评价方法。针对采煤工作面内因火灾风险，选取自燃倾向性、自然发火期、百万吨发火率、煤层厚度、煤层倾角、地质构造、煤层瓦斯等级、采煤工艺、采空区处理方法、采煤工作面上下行风压差、防灭火措施有效性、自热期阶段、Graham指数作为评价指标，采用插值法计算评价指标评分，并对各评价指标赋权，进而获得采煤工作面内因火灾潜伏期、自热期和燃烧期3个阶段火灾风险评分。当采煤工作面内因火灾潜伏期风险评分大于50分时，将该评分作为采煤工作面内因火灾风险最终评分，否则进入自热期风险评价；采煤工作面内因火灾自热期风险评分大于50分时，将该评分作为采煤工作面内因火灾风险最终评分，否则进入燃烧期风险评价；当进入燃烧期风险评价时，直接将采煤工作面内因火灾风险评分设为0。针对采煤工作面外因火灾风险，依托火灾在线监测、风险分级管控及隐患排查机制，选取温度、O2体积分数、CO体积分数、隐患超期未接单、隐患超期未整改、隐患复查不合格、风险管控措施超期未反馈、风险管控措施超期未复查、风险管控措施复查不合格作为评价指标，对采煤工作面外因火灾风险进行评分。以采煤工作面内因火灾和外因火灾风险评分最低值作为采煤工作面火灾风险评分，该评分越高，表明采煤工作面火灾危险程度越低。Abstract: The mine fire risk evaluation method has problems of single evaluation dimension, incomplete evaluation index and unreliable evaluation result. In order to solve the above problems, based on the analytic hierarchy process, a staged multi-index comprehensive evaluation method for fire risk of coal working face is put forward. In order to analyze the coal working face internal fire, the method selects spontaneous combustion tendency, spontaneous combustion period, million-ton ignition rate, coal seam thickness, coal seam dip angle, geological structure, coal seam gas grade, coal mine process, goaf treatment method, upper and lower traveling wind pressure difference of the coal working face, the effectiveness of fire prevention and extinguish measures, self-heating period stage and Graham index as evaluation indexes. The method calculates the evaluation index score by adopting an interpolation method and gives weight to each evaluation index. Then the fire risk scores of the three stages including incubation period, self-heating period and combustion period are obtained. When the risk score of the incubation period of the internal fire in the coal working face is more than 50 points, the score is taken as the final score of the internal fire risk of the coal working face. Otherwise, it will enter the risk evaluation of the self-heating period. When the risk score of the self-heating period of the internal fire in the coal working face is greater than 50 points, this score will be taken as the final score of the internal fire risk of the coal working face. Otherwise, it will enter the risk evaluation of the combustion period. When entering the risk evaluation of combustion period, the internal fire risk score of the coal working face is directly set as zero. Aiming at the external fire risk of the coal working face, this study relies on the fire online monitoring, risk graded management and control and hidden danger investigation mechanism. The study takes the following factors as the evaluation indexes to score the external fire risk of the coal working face. The factors include temperature, oxygen volume fraction, carbon monoxide volume fraction, overdue hidden danger without receiving orders, overdue hidden danger without rectification, unqualified hidden danger review, overdue risk control measures without feedback, overdue risk control measures without review, unqualified risk control measures review. The lowest risk score of internal and external fire in the coal working face is taken as the fire risk score of the coal working face. The higher the score, the lower the fire risk of coal working face.
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图 1 采煤工作面内因火灾潜伏期风险评价模型
Figure 1. Risk evaluation model for incubation period of internal fire in coal working face
图 2 采煤工作面外因火灾风险评价模型
Figure 2. Risk evaluation model for external fire in coal working face
表 1 采煤工作面内因火灾潜伏期风险评价指标评分规则
Table 1. Scoring rule for risk evaluation indexes of incubation period of internal fire in coal working face
准则 评价指标 参考值 评分 煤的易发火性 自燃倾向性 容易自燃
自燃
不易自燃10
40
70自然发火期/月 1
3
6
1210
20
50
75百万吨发火率/次 4
3
2
1
00
20
30
40
60煤层赋存 煤层倾角/（°） 45
12
010
50
90煤层厚度/m 5.0
2.5
0.510
50
90地质构造 复杂
中等
简单25
50
75矿井瓦斯等级 煤与瓦斯突出
高瓦斯
低瓦斯20
25
75开采技术 采煤工艺 非正规
炮采
普采
综采
综放10
30
40
70
10采空区处理方法 全部垮落法
顶板缓慢下沉法
刀柱法
局部充填法
全部充填法25
25
25
70
90采煤工作面上下行风压差/Pa 300
200
10010
50
90防灭火措施 防灭火措施效果 差
中
好25
50
75
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表 2 煤的易发火性对应的评价指标判断矩阵及权重
Table 2. Judgment matrix and weight of evaluation indexes corresponding to coal flammability
评价指标 自燃倾向性 自然发火期 百万吨发火率 权重 自燃倾向性 1 1 1/2 0.250 0 自然发火期 1 1 1/2 0.250 0 百万吨发火率 2 2 1 0.500 0
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表 3 煤层赋存对应的评价指标判断矩阵及权重
Table 3. Judgment matrix and weight of evaluation indexes corresponding to coal seam occurrence
评价指标 煤层厚度 煤层倾角 地质构造 煤层瓦斯等级 权重 煤层厚度 1 1 1 1 0.250 0 煤层倾角 1 1 1 1 0.250 0 地质构造 1 1 1 1 0.250 0 煤层瓦斯等级 1 1 1 1 0.250 0
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表 4 开采技术对应的评价指标判断矩阵及权重
Table 4. Judgment matrix and weight of evaluation indexes corresponding to mining technology
评价
指标采煤
工艺采空区
处理方法采煤工作面
上下行风压差权重 采煤工艺 1 2 2 0.500 0 采空区处理方法 1/2 1 1 0.250 0 采煤工作面上下行风压差 1/2 1 1 0.250 0
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表 5 目标层评价指标判断矩阵及权重
Table 5. Judgment matrix and weight of evaluation indexes of target layer
准则 煤的
易发火性煤层
赋存开采
技术防灭火
措施权重 煤的易发火性 1 3 2 1 0.351 2 煤层赋存 1/3 1 1/2 1/3 0.108 9 开采技术 1/2 2 1 1/2 0.188 7 防灭火措施 1 3 2 1 0.351 2
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表 6 采煤工作面内因火灾自热期风险评价指标评分规则
Table 6. Scoring rules for risk evaluation indexes of self-heating period of internal fire in coal working face
评价指标 参考值 评分 说明 自热期
阶段后期
中期
早期25
50
75可通过井下观测或人的生理感觉大致判断自热期阶段，该指标可用于大多数情况 Graham
指数报警值
预警值
安全值10
50
90通过煤的程序升温实验，得出采煤工作面Graham指数的报警值、预警值和安全值
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表 7 采煤工作面外因火灾风险评价指标评分规则
Table 7. Scoring rules for risk evaluation indexes of external fire in coal working face
准则 评价指标 参考值 评分 火灾在线监测 温度 报警
预警100
10O2体积分数 报警
预警100
10CO体积分数 报警
预警100
10安全检查 隐患超期未接单 重大隐患
Ⅰ级隐患
Ⅱ级隐患
Ⅲ级隐患5
4
2
0.5隐患超期未整改 重大隐患
Ⅰ级隐患
Ⅱ级隐患
Ⅲ级隐患10
8
5
1隐患复查不合格 重大隐患
Ⅰ级隐患
Ⅱ级隐患
Ⅲ级隐患20
10
6
2风险管控措施超期未反馈 重大风险
较大风险
一般风险
低风险10
6
2
0.2风险管控措施超期未复查 重大风险
较大风险
一般风险
低风险6
3
1
0.1风险管控措施复查不合格 重大风险
较大风险
一般风险
低风险15
10
4
1
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