灰色模型在矿区沉降预测中的应用

基金项目:

国家公益性行业专项资金支持项目（200809128）

国家自然科学基金项目（50774080,40971275

Application of Gray Model in Prediction of Mining Area Subsidence

1.
1.Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Engineering of CUMT., Xuzhou 221116, China. 2.Key Laboratory for Resources Environment and Disaster Monitoring of SBSM. of CUMT., Xu

摘要: 为了准确掌握矿山的沉降变化规律，预测沉降发展趋势，提出一种采用灰色模型进行矿区沉降预测的方法。结合沉降观测实例，采用灰色模型精度检验和数理统计的F分布两种方法对灰色模型的预测结果进行检验和分析。结果表明，灰色模型能够满足矿区沉降预测的精度要求，且预测精度随着采用数据量的增加而提高。
- 矿区沉降预测 /
- 灰色模型 /
- GM（1，1）模型 /
- 模型精度检验 /
- F分布理论
Abstract: In order to accurately grasp variation law of mine subsidence and predict trend of subsidence, the paper proposed a prediction method of mine area subsidence by use of gray model. Combining with an instance of subsidence observation, it used two methods of precision test of gray model and F distribution of mathematical statistics to test and analyze predicting results of the gray model. The results showed that the gray model meets precision requirements of prediction of mine area subsidence and improves prediction precision with increase of adopted data amount.
- prediction of mine area subsidence, gray model, GM(1,1) model, test of model precision, F distribution theory /